BP previously blogged on a statement by Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya who had stated that Thailand will “launch a more comprehensive program for the Myanmar people in the camps, the displaced, the intellectuals who run around the streets of Bangkok and Chiang Mai province, to return to Myanmar after the [November 7] elections”. Actually, via The Economist, the full quote can be seen at 41:40 from this video:
“I am going back to Bangkok and one of the first things I will be doing is to launch a more comprehensive program for the Myanmar people in the camps, the displaced persons, the intellectuals that run around the streets of Bangkok and Chang Mai province, to prepare them to return to Myanmar after the elections.”
BP: Although, in fairness to Kasit, he does refer (at 42:25) to their "eventual return" to Burma so does not necessarily state that it will immediate, but this statement about preparing the Burmese to go home actually seems like what they will be planning to do.
After this, the Thai Foreign Ministry then issued a denial as reported by DVB:
But a statement issued by the foreign ministry yesterday said that subsequent media reports were a “misinterpretation” of Piromya’s remarks, and that “there existed no such plan”.
It said instead that Thailand is to “help better prepare Myanmar people now residing in Thailand, including Myanmar displaced persons in terms of training, education and capacity building”, although did not clarify what they were being prepared for.
“The objective is to ensure that these people can return home with dignity, be self-reliant, and participate and contribute meaningfully to their country’s development when the situation in their country becomes conducive for their eventual return, whenever that may be,” it finished.
...
The foreign ministry statement said that Thailand “has consistently been supportive of the democratisation process in Myanmar, and the upcoming general election in November 2010 is a crucial step, which could lead to national reconciliation and unity there”.
BP: BP has also heard that the government has conveyed to others that there will be no forced return.
Also, The Economist:
Thailand's foreign ministry has since said Mr Kasit's remarks have been misinterpreted. They say that Burmese asylum seekers will not be returned until “the situation in their country becomes conducive”, whenever that may be.� The proviso has not done much to reassure Burmese refugees however. Thai authorities have shown an inclination in recent years to carry out deportations even in the face of strong opposition from rights groups and foreign powers.
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“We have no reason to believe the political activists or ethnic groups will be able to return safely to Burma,” says Andy Hall, a consultant to the Bangkok-based Human Rights and Development Foundation. “There’s nothing to say the conflict will get any better after the election.
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But Thailand’s longer record on Burmese refugees has been admirable, says David Mathieson, the head of research on Myanmar for Human Rights Watch. Thailand has for decades borne the brunt of refugee exoduses from South-East Asian conflicts, including wars in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. “You put that in context and Thailand actually has been very tolerant in its refugee policy towards Burmese.” But Mr Kasit’s recent proposal is deeply dangerous, he says—and vague, too. “It’s unclear who exactly this would apply to and how it would be carried out.” In the meantime, he adds, “it has made hundreds of thousands…if not millions of Burmese in Thailand very nervous.”
An example of this nervousness can be seen in an article from "The Irrawaddy" entitled Former Political Prisoners Fear Repatriation. Key excerpt:
With the election just weeks away and with little hope that it will change the political situation in Burma, many political former prisoners are concerned that Thai authorities will repatriate them, and they are preparing for the worst.
Thiha said he has already made up his mind about what he will do, should that happen.
“I will commit suicide before being sent back,” he said. “It doesn’t matter. If we are sent back, the regime will take away our lives. We will have no future.”
Actually, despite there being an election in November, the repression by the Burmese government has not ceased in the lead-up to the election, but has actually increased per VOA:
Burma's military attacks against ethnic groups along the border have in recent years driven tens of thousands into Thailand.
The refugees and Burmese rights activists say the military has stepped up assaults on ethnic militias ahead of next month's elections to force them into submission.
But rights groups say they also kill, rape and displace civilians - forcing many to flee to Thailand.
It also comes at a time where Abhisit visited Burma and signed a deal as FT reports:
But that is changing. Abhisit Vejjajiva, Thailand’s prime minister, signed a deal on Monday to build a port on the coast of neighbouring Burma...
Ital-Thai, Thailand’s largest construction contractor, recently said that it hoped to sign a Bt400bn ($13.3bn) deal to develop the new deep-water port at Tavoy, with an industrial estate and ancilliary transport network, including a 160km railway to Kanchanaburi in Thailand.
If the deal goes ahead, it will be the largest ever single investment in Burma.
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But the port deal will also underline just how ineffective international sanctions against the Burmese regime are. Thailand is America’s oldest ally in Asia, and if Washington cannot persuade the Thai government to limit its involvement with the generals who run Burma, there is little hope that the regime’s other major supporters - China and India - will fall into line.
BP: Former diplomat Pavin had an op-ed in the Bangkok Post and noted that Abhisit's Democrat Party PM predecessor Chuan never visited Burma and looks how Abhisit is changing the traditional Democrat Party position on Burma.
On whether Thailand will deport Burmese after the election, while the government has told others that there will be no "forced" repatriation, you have to remember that the word "forced" and "voluntary" can be open to interpretation. In regards to the deportation of the Hmong, then Thai government spokesman Panitan stated "No, no, not forcefully - they volunteer to go back at least in the morning of today". Such claims of voluntary repatriation were met with derision by HRW and the fact that they army showed up with batons and shields to "voluntarily" repatriate the Hmong.
Therefore, the question will be, how "voluntary" will any repatriations be and who will be repatriated? For now, this question is still open. It is one thing to deport Hmong whose plight is not in the spotlight as the Burmese are and to do it over the Christmas-New Year period where there is even less attention, but it is another to deport Burmese just after the first election in Burma in 20 years and where significant media and government attention will be directed at Burma. The government may think twice after doing this, or will very likely at least wait a few months after the election before actively encouraging Burmese to return....
Ref: Bangkok Pundit (update: Oct. 22 2010 - 08:00 am)
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