 |
| จาก อัลบั้ม Asiancorrespondent |
10:40 p.m. Matichon reports that after all the votes were counted that the unofficial vote tally was
* Panich with 96,480 votes (this equates to 53.47% of the vote if you don't count the spoilt/no vote or 50.36% if you do),
* Korkaew with 81,776 votes (this equates to 45.32% of the vote if you don't count the spoilt/no vote or 42.68% if you do),
* So this is a victory of 8.15% or 7.67% depending on whether you dinclude the spoilt/no vote
* Other candidates with 2,176 votes
* Total of 180,432 legitimate votes were cast for candidates
* Spoilt ballots 2,931 votes (1.53% of total number of votes)
* No vote/none of the above 8,235 votes (4.30% of total number of votes)
* Total number of votes cast, 191.598 votes out of 386,660 votes or turn-out of 49.55%
Reuters:
The ruling Democrats are likely to play the results up as a symbolic victory that shows Bangkok's 15 million people generally back Abhisit's tough measures, said Karn Yuenyong, director of the independent Siam Intelligence Unit.
But the district often votes differently from other areas of Bangkok.
"The result is no indication the Democrats are going to win the next general election," said Siripan Nogsuan, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. But the Democrats will try to use it to build political momentum, he added.
Bloomberg:
“This election will make Thai democracy move a step further,” Panich said in live comments broadcast by TNN News after hearing the unofficial results. “The country’s democracy is back to normal.”
Christian Science Monitor:
Sunday’s by-election was largely symbolic and won’t affect the balance of power in Thailand’s parliament. But it served as a barometer of the government’s handling of the red-shirt protests and the sympathies of Bangkok residents.
...
His party previously held the seat and Mr. Panich was widely favored to win. But party officials said his margin of victory – around 15,000 out of 178,000 votes – was a positive sign, though they declined to say if it would be followed by national elections. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s term ends in Dec. 2011 and a key demand of the mass protests was an earlier election.
BP: Ok, before looking at what this poll means - and aside from the details mentioned in this previous post - it should be noted that both the Democrats and Puea Thai did better than in 2007. In 2007, the Democrats won 45% of the vote and Puea Thai won 42% of the vote, but back then the "others" category was 12% and this included a number of the Democrats coalition partners who did participate this time. Hence, this was BP previously blogged that thought the Democrats would win by 20,000. Am a little surprised that turn-out this time was so low at less than 50% (compared with 72% in 2007) so this caught BP off-guard so the 8% victory by the Democrats was about what BP expected.
The Democrats could say they have increased their vote from 2007 and their candidate clearly won more than 50% of the vote so it was a clear victory for the government, but on the other hand Puea Thai could say they also increased their vote and as Andrew Spooner tweeted "81,000 Bangkok citizens voted for someone the Thai govt has labelled a terrorist in a by-election today in Thailand". Also, the exit poll said that the Democrats were going to win by almost 13%, a Special Branch poll (yes, the police apparently do polls) said the Democrats were going to win by 20%, and a Suan Dusit poll said they were going to win by 17% so Puea Thai did better than expected. Given that Puea Thai chose a red shirt leader, even if a moderate one, it is hard to see an 8% loss in this seat as a rejection of the reds or Puea Thai. In fact, that is probably what BP thinks you can take from the poll. The Democrats didn't lose, but neither did Puea Thai (and by their choice of candidates, the reds). Puea Thai and the reds probably had more to lose so by the narrowest margains so it is a moral victory for them. This is partly because Puea Thai gambled more with a potentially riskier candidate.
A bomb went off in central Bangkok near a bus stop just after 6 p.m. today killing one person and injuring around 10 (see pictures of it here). What will its impact be on the political environment? Well, aside from it being less likely that the state of emergency will be lifted. Aside, from that, it is just one of many although this time, one person has died.
6:10 p.m. Via a journalist of the Nation Channel, Panich has 88,190 votes (around 53%) versus Korkaew for 77,215 (around 46.5%).
Having something to eat and drink. Back later once the results are in for some analysis.
5:25 p.m. From From Channel 3 (they showed the EC screen), Panich has 81,785 votes versus Korkaew 72,711 votes.
5:15 p.m. Via a journalist of the Nation Channel who has taken a screenshot of the vote count withof 44% of the votes being counted and the Dems Panich is in the lead with 51,533 votes versus Korkaew with 45,510 votes. This was around 5 p.m.
4:25 p.m. AP:
The poll is seen as a test of strength for the so-called Red Shirts, who from March to May camped out on some of Bangkok's major thoroughfares to demand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dissolve parliament and call a general election. They charge he came to power illegitimately.
...
"This byelection is Bangkok residents' referendum on the government," said Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit.
Democrat campaign spokesman Thana Cheeravinij made the same point: "The Democrats' triumph in this election would show people's confidence in the government and their approval for us to lead the country through the crisis."
...
Polls suggest the Democrats will win an easy victory and Pheu Thai points out handicaps under which it campaigns — generally hostile mainstream media, censorship of its own print, broadcast and Internet organs, and Kokaew's detention.
"We have to figure out how to win this fight with our hands and feet tied," said party spokesman Prompong.
Their opponents are unsympathetic.
"Every political party had it in their power to select who would run," said Democrat Thana. "Pheu Thai Party chose Kokaew, knowing absolutely that there could be a problem with his campaign since he was being detained. Pheu Thai can't say this is unfair for them."
The constituency is considered Democrat territory, and the party is also counting on a backlash caused by the violence associated with the Red Shirt movement, culminating with arson at 30-odd locations as their protest ended on May 19.
"Through this election, we would know if people would like to return to the same chronic cycle (of unrest), since one of the contenders was a protest leader," said Thana.
"Some people argue that the violence of May will have turned people away from sympathy with the reds," wrote 'Chang Noi,' pseudonymous columnist for the newspaper The Nation. "Others are guessing that the heavy-handedness of the crackdown and the government's subsequent triumphalism will have increased sympathies for the reds. The election will show which of these predictions is right."
Reuters has this quote:
"The race is very important for both parties because the result, as well as the margin won, will be seen as a symbolic statement in a tense and divided political landscape," said Karn Yuenyong, director of the independent Siam Intelligence Unit.
Bloomberg:
Both sides are looking to the vote to legitimize their roles in the violence, which put off tourists from visiting Thailand’s beach resorts and hurt manufacturing output. Neither side is likely to change its strategy after the vote though the winning party will gain momentum, said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University.
“What the opposition wants is a symbolic victory to rejuvenate their movement after the May crackdown,” Somjai said. “This is one small battle in the larger fight that has been going on for years.”
Channel News Asia has quotes from both parties:
Panich Vikitsreth, Democrat Party candidate, says: "Well we cannot deny that, you know, from the constituency issues, to pick one person to be representative, it turns out to be a national contest between the two parties-Democrat and the Puea Thai Party and it also turns out to be a contest between the government and the demonstrators."
...
Kanawat Wasinsangworn, deputy leader, Puea Thai Party, says: "I admit that from the beginning we were seen as the loser, far-behind loser, but according to our polls, we are coming very close. It really means something, even though we are going to be the loser if the result is so close."
DPA:
"I'm here because I want to see an end to double standards," said Suwasa Sukpuporn, 52, a civil servant. "We have a political mess because there are always double standards in the judiciary."
BP: A Puea Thai voter one would surmise...
4:00 p.m. Thai Rath has a quote from one of the election commissioners who states turnout of 60% is expected. From the 2007 general election, turnout was 71.89% (or 262,829 out of 365,620). There could be many reasons for the lower turnout - tomorrow and (Tuesday for some) is a public holiday so with the long weekend many people may go on holiday and not vote and well generally the turnout is much lower for a by-election.
3.50 p.m. Should note from the previous post from July 9 that BP's prediction was: If BP was to make an educated guess, the Democrats will win by by about 20,000 votes
3:40 p.m. See previous posts about the by-election here and here.
3:30 p.m. The polls closed at 3 p.m. so they are just counting the vote now. Matichon reports there were international monitors including from the Asia Foundation observing the voting - actually you can see Chandler Vandergrift in the picture in the article, who was severely injured on May 19 by an M79 grenade, looking much better.
3:15 p.m. Matichon has the details from Suan Dusit's exit poll for the by-election being held today in Bangkok Constituency 6. 5,157 were surveyed. The Democrat Party's candidate Panich Vikitsreth received 52.77% of the vote, Korkaew Pikulthong of Puea Thai received 40.93%, .6% voted for others, and 5.7% didn't choose anyone/no vote.
Ref: Bangkok Pundit
BP
Jul. 25 2010 - 04:21 pm
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น